11-15-2022 City Council Study Session Packet
City of Grand Island
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Study Session Agenda
City Council:
Jason Conley
Michelle Fitzke
Bethany Guzinski
Chuck Haase
Maggie Mendoza
Vaughn Minton
Mitchell Nickerson
Mike Paulick
Justin Scott
Mark Stelk
Mayor:
Roger G. Steele
City Administrator:
Jerry Janulewicz
City Clerk:
RaNae Edwards
7:00 PM
Council Chambers
100 East 1st Street, Grand Island, NE 68801
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 1 / 58
City of Grand Island Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Call to Order
This is an open meeting of the Grand Island City Council. The City of Grand Island abides by the Open
Meetings Act in conducting business. A copy of the Open Meetings Act is displayed in the back of this room
as required by state law.
The City Council may vote to go into Closed Session on any agenda item as allowed by state law.
Invocation
Pledge of Allegiance
Roll Call
A - SUBMITTAL OF REQUESTS FOR FUTURE ITEMS
Individuals who have appropriate items for City Council consideration should complete the Request for
Future Agenda Items form located at the Information Booth. If the issue can be handled administratively
without Council action, notification will be provided. If the item is scheduled for a meeting or study
session, notification of the date will be given.
B - RESERVE TIME TO SPEAK ON AGENDA ITEMS
This is an opportunity for individuals wishing to provide input on any of tonight's agenda items to reserve
time to speak. Please come forward, state your name and address, and the Agenda topic on which you will
be speaking.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 2 / 58
City of Grand Island
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Study Session
Item -1
Recognition of the Northwest Girls Softball Team’s Class B State
Championship
The Mayor and City Council will recognize the Northwest Girls Softball team and coaches for their
Class B State Championship win. Congratulations to the Vikings for an outstanding season.
Head Coach: Mitch Sadd
Assistant Coaches: Natalie Starostka, Sara Olsen, and Bailey Bryant
Team members: Madison Cushing, Kamrynn Mings, Reyse Zobel, Grace Baasch, Avyn Urbanski, Kyra
Ray, Ava Smith, Aubrey Olsufka, Logan Meguire, Ava Laurent, Kendal Morledge, Jolie O'Hara, Kylie
Caspersen, Libby Loman, Taila Bandt, Macie Folkers, Kayla Koehn, Jalyssa Caldwell, Laiken Dorsey,
and Emily Spiehs.
Staff Contact: Mayor Roger Steele
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 3 / 58
City of Grand Island
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Study Session
Item -2
Presentation Regarding Conestoga Market Place Redevelopment
Staff Contact: Chad Nabity
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 4 / 58
Grand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 5 / 58
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 6 / 58
Looking NorthEXHIBIT 2A13th StreetHwy. 281Grand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 7 / 58
Looking Northwest FromCorner of 13th Street& Webb RoadEXHIBIT 2BGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 8 / 58
Looking SoutheastEXHIBIT 2CGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 9 / 58
Looking East FromHighway 281EXHIBIT 2DGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 10 / 58
North End of Mall Structurewith Future EntertainmentEXHIBIT 2EGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 11 / 58
Eastern Facing StorefrontsTowards Webb RoadEXHIBIT 2FGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 12 / 58
Eastern StorefrontsEXHIBIT 2GGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 13 / 58
Future Sit-Down RestaurantsLooking East from Highway 281EXHIBIT 2HGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 14 / 58
Development Tenant SignDevelopment Digital SignEXHIBIT 2IGrand IslandStudy Session - 11/15/2022Page 15 / 58
“Conestoga Marketplace” Redevelopment Project
City Executive Summary
November 2022
Project Overview
Woodsonia Real Estate Inc. (“Woodsonia”), an Omaha, NE based development firm, is excited
to announce the proposed redevelopment of Conestoga Mall into a future $200M + mixed-use,
life-style project called Conestoga Marketplace. As shown on the included site plan (see Exhibit
1A) and concept renderings (see Exhibits 2A – 2I) Conestoga Marketplace will be anchored by
a new to market 150,000 SF retailer positioned on the southern portion of the redevelopment
site. The remaining portion of the mall will be completely modernized with exterior facing
storefronts, updated interior and exterior façades, new tenant signage and a state-of-the-art
entertainment offering, including a new cinema with in-theater dining, indoor / outdoor pickleball
courts and a first-class bar / restaurant facility.
Conestoga Marketplace will also include 300 + Class A market rate multi-family housing units, a
new hotel and pad sites along Hwy 281 and 13th Street. The pad sites will be comprised of new
restaurants and multi-tenant retail buildings. With the City’s support, the redevelopment project
would commence construction Q2 of 2023 with several phases and the new to market 150,000
SF retailer opening in 2025 - 2026.
Project Cost and Requested Incentive Amounts:
Estimated Total Project Cost: $ 221,585,000 100.00%
Private Investment and Debt: $ 148,065,000 66.82%
TIF Reimbursement: $ 26,257,000 11.85%
EEA / Occupation Tax: $ 36,763,000 16.59%
CRA Funding Contribution: $ 4,000,000 1.81%
Grow Grand Island Funding Contribution: $1,000,000 0.45%
City of Grand Island Contribution: $ 5,500,000 2.48%
*** The above amounts are rounded
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 16 / 58
Incentive Tools:
• Tax Increment Financing (Extreme Blight) – For 20 Year Term
• Enhanced Employment Area (EEA) / Occupation Tax – For 30 Year Term, 1.50% add-
on tax within the District boundaries including all Conestoga Marketplace property. The
1.50% Occupation Tax would be imposed on the gross receipts resulting from the sale,
lease or rental of any products or services within the EEA District.
• Community Redevelopment Authority (CRA) Contribution – For 20 years, redirection of
$200,000 from the current generated CRA levy annually commencing Year 1
• Grow Grand Island Funding Contribution– Funding contribution of $1,000,000
• City of Grand Funding Contribution – Funding contribution of $5,500,000 used towards
required public infrastructure eligible project expenses
Challenges / Economic Benefit to City of Grand Island:
Mall Decline: The Conestoga Mall has been an integral part of Grand Island’s community for
nearly 50 years, however, with the rise of e-commerce, the loss of 3 of the 4 primary mall
anchors and the lack of investment via its out of state ownership, the Mall has struggled to thrive
in this changing retail environment. Conestoga Mall property has been in steady decline with
property tax valuations dropping approximately $10,000,000 (50%) over the past 20 years and
tenant sales falling 40% over the prior 4 years. The approximate drop in City annual
revenues is $734,000.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 17 / 58
Leakage: As you’ll see in the market retail study completed by Canyon Research, which is
provided as Exhibit 3, the Grand Island MSA has estimated retail leakage of $61.4 million to
$81.7 million. The proposed Conestoga Marketplace redevelopment is forecast to generate
stabilized annual sales of $150.9 to $165.1 million ($146.2 to $160.1 million excluding hotel
sales), with net new sales to the City of Grand Island estimated to account for 42 to 51 percent of
total annual sales.
As indicated in the chart below, upon completion and stabilization of the Conestoga
Marketplace redevelopment project, the City of Grand Island will receive total sales tax
revenues of $3,313,650, net new sales tax revenues of $1,469,400 and net new Food &
Beverage tax revenue of $252,525 for total net new tax revenues of $1,721,925.
Median Sales City Sales Tax
Revenues
$71,550,000 -$1,431,000
Total Existing Sales Leakage -$1,431,000
$153,056,250 $3,061,125
$16,835,000 $252,525
Total Sales Tax Revenues $3,313,650
$73,470,000 $1,469,400
$16,835,000 $252,525
New Sales Tax Revenues $1,721,925
New Forecasted Stabalized Sales
Total / New Forecasted F&B Sales
CANYON RESEARCH GRAND ISLAND SALES LEAKEAGE / PROJECTIONS
Existing Retail Sales Leakage
Total Forecasted Stabalized Sales
Total / New Forecasted F&B Sales
Category
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 18 / 58
Secondarily, the direct net new sales generated by Proposed Conestoga Mall redevelopment
and captured by the City of Grand Island would also produce a spinoff effect on Grand Island’s
retail market in the form of indirect sales, estimated at $23.4 million to $31.0 million.
Fiscal Benefit: Lastly, based on our projections, and upon opening of all Project Areas, this
project would create approximately $3,061,125 in Year 1 stabilized Annual Sales Tax Revenue
for the City of Grand Island, $252,525 in Year 1 stabilized new additional Food & Beverage
Occupation Tax receipts, and beginning in year 21 approximately $2,803,189 in additional
property taxes. A summary of the estimated City of Grand Island Fiscal Benefit is provided
below.
CONESTOGA REDEVELOPMENT - CITY BENEFIT - 30 YEARS (Assumes 1.50% Growth Rate)
Category Annual Revenue Project Duration (Years) Total
City Sales Tax $3,061,125 30 $114,910,596
Food & Beverage Occupation Tax $252,525 30 $9,479,546
City Property Tax Years 21 - 30 $2,805,809 10 $30,029,792
Material Tax $830,943 1 $830,943
TOTAL $155,250,877
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 19 / 58
Prepared For:
Woodsonia Hwy 281, LLC
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
505 Ellicott Street, Suite A202
Buffalo, NY 14203
October 2022
RETAIL SALES IMPACT ANALYSIS
Conestoga Mall Redevelopment
Grand Island, Nebraska
EXHIBIT 3
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 20 / 58
CANYON RESEARCH SOUTHWEST, INC. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
505 ELLICOTT STREET, SUITE A202 / BUFFALO, NY 14203 / (716) 327-5576
RETAIL SALES IMPACT ANALYSIS
CONESTOGA MALL REDEVELOPMENT
13th STREET AND U.S. HIGHWAY 281
GRAND ISLAND, NEBRASKA
October 2022
Prepared for:
Woodsonia Hwy 281, LLC
20010 Manderson Street, Suite 101
Elkhorn, NE 68022
Prepared by:
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
505 Ellicott Street, Suite A202
Buffalo, NY 14202
PR# 2022.09.02
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 21 / 58
CANYON RESEARCH SOUTHWEST, INC. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
505 ELLICOTT STREET, SUITE A202 / BUFFALO, NY 14203 / (716) 327-5576
October 3, 2022
Drew Snyder
Woodsonia Hwy 281, LLC
20010 Manderson Street, Suite 101
Elkhorn, NE 68022
Re: Request for Proposal – Retail Sales Impact Study
Conestoga Mall Redevelopment; Grand Island, Nebraska
Mr. Snyder,
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. has prepared the attached Retail Sales Impact Analysis for a
proposed for the proposed redevelopment of Conestoga Mall located at 13th Street and U.S.
Highway 281 in Grand Island, Nebraska. The purpose of study is to estimate sales for the proposed
New Anchor Store (“New Anchor Store”), entertainment, retail shops, restaurants, and hotel and
net new sales captured by the City of Grand Island, Nebraska.
Upon review of the report, should any questions arise, or additional information requested, contact
me directly at (716) 327-5576.
Respectfully submitted,
CANYON RESEARCH SOUTHWEST, INC.
Eric S. Lander, Principal
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 22 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
i
T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Page #
SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS ............................................... ii
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1
Study Objective and Organization .......................................................... 1
Project Overview ..................................................................................... 1
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ............................................................. 4
Trade Area Defined ................................................................................. 4
Population Growth Trends ....................................................................... 6
Population Age Distribution Trends ....................................................... 7
Educational Attainment ........................................................................... 8
Household Income ................................................................................... 9
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS ......................................................... 10
Grand Island Sales Tax Collections ........................................................ 10
Grand Island Retail Market Overview .................................................... 10
Trade Area Capture ................................................................................. 14
Retail Pull Factor ..................................................................................... 15
Trade Area Retail Sales ........................................................................... 15
SITE EVALUATION .............................................................................. 17
RETAIL SALES ESTIMATES ........................................................... 19
Forecast Retail Sales ................................................................................ 20
Net New Sales Capture ........................................................................... 23
Conclusions ............................................................................................. 24
ADDENDA ................................................................................................. 25
Exhibit A: Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. Client Roster ................. 26
Exhibit B: Resume of Eric S. Lander, Principal ................................... 29
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 23 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
ii
SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. has prepared the attached Retail Sales Impact Analysis for the
proposed redevelopment of Conestoga Mall located at 13th Street and U.S. Highway 281 in Grand
Island, Nebraska. The study estimates sales for the proposed New Anchor Store, entertainment /
theater operator, retail shops, restaurants, and hotel and net new sales captured by the City of Grand
Island, Nebraska. The study’s major findings are summarized below.
Trade Area Demographics
The proposed redevelopment of the Conestoga Mall will support retail trade areas defined as a
primary trade area within a 30-minute drive time, a secondary trade area within a 40-minute drive
time, and a tertiary trade area within a 50-minute drive time.
A trade area’s population demographics play a significant role in the demand for retail goods and
services. Of specific importance to the level and composition of a trade area’s supportable retail
market are population growth, age distribution, educational attainment, and household income.
The primary trade area within a 30-minute drive from the Conestoga Mall site supports a current
population of 92,493 residents, of which just 56.6 percent are Grand Island residents. The primary,
secondary, and tertiary trade area population is estimated at 166,105, with the City of Grand Island
accounting for just 31.5 percent of the total trade area population. Given Grand Island’s status
as a region shopping destination, this population disparity suggests the city captures
significant retail sales from nonresidents.
The population groups having the greatest impact on future retail expenditures include children (0
to 14 years) and family/working adults (35-44 years). These age groups favor retail expenditures
on apparel, accessories, groceries, sporting goods, music, consumer electronics, eating and
drinking places, entertainment, and general merchandise.
Trade area residents on average are slightly less educated than the statewide norm, supporting
higher rates of high school graduates as the highest level of educational attainment and lower rates
of residents 25 years and over possess an Associate degree of better. These lower educational
attainment trends are common within rural communities. The trade area’s educational attainment
rates will be more relevant on income levels than the retail expenditure patterns.
The entire trade area’s median household income of $62,551 compares to the statewide median of
$63,015, with slightly lower rates of households earning less than $35,000 and high-income
households earning $100,000 or more. Households earning $35,000 to $99,999 annually account
for 46.3 percent of the trade area households which exceeds the statewide rate. Income levels and
purchasing power for trade area households are only marginally lower than the state. The net
effect is achievable household retail expenditures comparable the state norm.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 24 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
iii
Competitive Retail Market Conditions
Grand Island serves as a regional shopping destination attracting customers from well outside the
City limits. Much of the reason for Grand Island’s regional draw is the presence of a large cluster
of major retailers not operating stores within a 40+ minute drive time.
Since fiscal year 2015-16, sales tax receipts collected by the City of Grand Island have increased
at an impressive average annual rate of 11.8 percent. The strong gains in sales tax collections are
an indication of Grand Island’s regional retail draw and the ability to attract shoppers and retail
expenditures from outside the city limits.
By the third quarter 2022 the inventory of retail space in the Grand Island market totaled 5.15
million square feet, operating at a healthy vacancy rate of 5.5 percent. From 2010 through 2021,
202,305 square feet of retail space was constructed in the Grand Island market and 232,761 square
feet of retail space was absorbed. With net space absorption outpacing new additions to supply,
the overall retail vacancy rate for the Grand Island market has remained healthy.
Grand Island supports two principal retail corridors. Locust Avenue south of Bismark Road
represents the older commercial corridor featuring a mix of chain restaurants, strip centers, and
hotels. Highway 281 represents the new retail corridor with large-scale shopping centers such as
Northwest Commons, Eagle Run, Grand Corners, and Conestoga Mall anchored by national big-
box retailers. Notable retailers operating along Highway 281 include Walmart, Sam’s Club,
Dillard’s, Best Buy, Kohl’s, TJ Maxx, Home Depot, and Menards.
Grand Island’s resident population of 52,335 and estimated TAC of 74,239 residents illustrates the
city’s well above average capture of retail sales from nonresidents. The large concentration of
national retailers and distance to alternative shopping destinations in Lincoln, Omaha, and Kearney
accounts for the high trade area capture.
Grand Island’s pull factor of 1.42 indicates a retail sales capture at a rate 42 percent greater than
the statewide average. The pull factor suggests that nonresidents have a significant impact on
Grand Island’s taxable retail sales.
Conestoga Mall’s location within a regional shopping destination in the heart of the Highway 281
retail corridor offers the site characteristics that are favorable for supporting redevelopment with
a mix of anchor retailers, entertainment, small shops, and restaurant uses.
Retail Sales Estimates
Based on trade area demographics, the status of Grand Island as a regional shopping destination,
and the level of direct competition, stabilized sales for the proposed redevelopment of Conestoga
Mall are estimated at $151 to $165 million. Net new retail sales (excludes hotel revenues) to the
City of Grand Island are estimated to account for 42 to 51 percent of total store sales, amounting
to $61.4 million to $81.7 million. These additional net new sales captured by the City of Grand
Island would prove to increase the City’s pull factor from a current rate of 1.42 to a range of 1.48
to 1.50.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 25 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
iv
The direct net new sales generated by the proposed Conestoga Mall redevelopment and captured
by the City of Grand Island would also produce a spinoff effect on Grand Island’s retail market in
the form of indirect sales, estimated at $24.6 million to $32.7 million annually.
Proposed Conestoga Mall Redevelopment
Estimated Out-of-Town Sales
Annual Sales
Trade Area Low High
Estimated Retail Sales $146,250,850 $160,133,675
Primary Trade Area $51,187,798 $64,053,470
Secondary Trade Area $7,312,543 $11,209,357
Tertiary Trade Area $2,925,017 $6,405,347
Total Out-of-Town Sales $61,425,357 $81,668,174
% of Total 42.0% 51.0%
Notes: *Excludes hotel sales.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 26 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
viii
RETAIL SALES IMPACT ANALYSIS
CONESTOGA MALL REDEVELOPMENT
13th STREET AND HIGHWAY 281
GRAND ISLAND, NEBRASKA
October 2022
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 27 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 1
INTRODUCTION
Study Objective and Organization
Plans call for redevelopment of Conestoga Mall located at 13th Street and Highway 281 in Grand
Island, Nebraska. The purpose of Retail Sales Impact Analysis is to estimate the sales for the
proposed New Anchor Store, entertainment / theater operator, retail shops, restaurants, and hotel
and net new sales captured by the City of Grand Island, Nebraska.
The Retail Sales Impact Analysis is segmented into four sections, including: 1) a trade area
demographic analysis, 2) retail market analysis, 3) site evaluation, and 4) retail sales projections
for the New Anchor Store, entertainment / theater operator, junior anchors, and restaurants.
The Demographic and Economic Analysis section will identify the trade area’s demographic
characteristics including population and household growth trends, household types, household
incomes, and educational attainment. The trade area’s demographic profile affects consumer
spending patterns.
The Retail Market Analysis section measures Grand Island’s historic trends in retail sales, trade
area capture, retail pull factor, survey of existing major anchor and junior anchor stores, movie
theaters, and national chain restaurants operating in Grand Island, and trade area retail sales for
department stores, junior anchors, entertainment, and restaurants.
The Site Analysis evaluates the property’s ability to facilitate redevelopment of the Conestoga
Mall into the proposed anchored shopping center. Evaluation criteria include parcel size; visibility
and exposure; accessibility; traffic counts; critical mass of retail space; and direct competition.
Based on the study findings annual retail sales at stabilization for the proposed retail components
will be forecast and net new sales captured by the City of Grand Island estimated.
Project Overview
Conestoga Mall is an enclosed shopping mall located at 13th Street and Highway 281 in Grand
Island, Nebraska. Ericson Development of Edina, Minnesota, built the mall in 1974, anchored by
Miller & Paine and Brandeis. Later mall expansions brought Sears, JC Penney, and J.M.
McDonald, a regional department store chain. Dillard’s purchased Miller & Paine in 1988, and
Younkers purchased Brandeis in 1987. Best Buy serves as a junior anchor, located in a portion of
the former J.M. McDonald space. At 545,000 square feet of retail space on 57 acres, Conestoga
Mall is the largest enclosed shopping mall between Lincoln, Nebraska and Denver, Colorado.
The Younkers store closed in August 2018 with the liquidation of its owner, Bon-Ton Stores. The
Sears store closed in early 2019 as part of the retailer’s plan to close 40 stores. The JC Penney
store closed in October 2020. Dillard’s is the mall’s only remaining anchor tenant. Other notable
mall tenants include AMC Theatres, American Eagle Outfitters, Bath & Body Works, Buckle,
Foot Locker, JoAnn Fabrics, Maurices, and rue21.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 28 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 2
In 2003, J. Herzog & sons purchased the mall from the Richard E. Jacobs Group and in 2017, New
York-based Namdar Realty Group purchased the property.
Woodsonia Hwy 281, LLC has plans to redevelop the 50.6-acre Conestoga Mall property with the
conceptual project plan depicted on page 3. Referred to as the Conestoga Marketplace, the plan
calls for the mall property to be transformed into a mixed-use development featuring anchor
tenants, small shop space, ten outparcels accommodating restaurants and retail shops, a 150-room
hotel, and 304 apartment units over structured parking. At build-out, the Conestoga Marketplace
will occupy 366,938 square feet of retail space, 150 hotel rooms, and 304 apartment units.
Approximately 150,000 square feet of the mall’s existing retail space will remain and be upgraded
to include the 25,000 square foot Best Buy store, 38,000 square foot movie theatre/entertainment
complex, and 87,000 square feet of shop space. A new 147,863 square foot New Anchor Store
will serve as the project’s major anchor tenant.
Conestoga Mall Redevelopment Plan
Building Dwelling Hotel
Lot # Acres Use Sq. Ft. Units Rooms
1A 1.2 Outparcel - Restaurant 4,900
1B 2.0 Outparcel - Retail Shops 14,000
1C 1.4 Outparcel - Retail Shops 10,000
1D 2.7 Hotel 150
2 0.9 Outparcel - Restaurant 2,275
3 12.9 Existing Mall Shops 87,000
Existing Best Buy 25,000
Movie Theatre/Entertainment Complex 38,000
4 1.2 Outparcel - Retail Shops 8,400
5 1.7 Outparcel - Restaurant 6,400
6 1.8 Outparcel - Restaurant 6,400
7 0.9 Outparcel - Restaurant 3,600
8 1.4 Outparcel - Restaurant 4,000
9 1.6 Outparcel - Restaurant 9,100
10 12.3 Anchor Store 147,863
11 7.5 Apartments 304
Totals 49.5 366,938 304 150
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 29 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 3
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 30 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 4
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
This section of the report examines consumer-related demographic factors impacting the proposed
redevelopment of the Conestoga Mall into the Conestoga Marketplace, including population and
household growth trends, age distribution, educational attainment, and household income.
Demographic data was provided by Esri Business Analyst, a national demographic research firm.
Quantifying these demographic characteristics will assist in projecting future sales for the
proposed redeveloped Conestoga Marketplace.
Trade Area Defined
Customers residing closest to the proposed Conestoga Marketplace will have the greatest impact
on store sales, with customer influence diminishing as the distance increases. Trade areas are
usually divided into three categories or zones of influence, each of which is defined below.
Primary Trade Area: The primary trade area draws 70 to 80 percent of a retail
store’s regular customers.
Secondary Trade Area: The secondary trade area generates about 15 to 20
percent of a store’s total sales.
Tertiary Trade Area: The tertiary trade area forms the broadest area from which
a store draws customers. The tertiary trade area generates a small percentage of
store sales.
Grand Island, Nebraska serves as a regional shopping destination for south-central Nebraska.
Other factors influencing the retail trade area composition include the location of sister stores,
extent of direct competition, area transportation network and drive times, population density, and
geographic barriers.
Target, for example, operates 14 stores in Nebraska, including six in Omaha and three in Lincoln.
The closest Target stores to Grand Island is in Kearney, Nebraska 43 miles to the west along
Interstate 80. The closest Target store to the east is in Lincoln, 99 miles from Grand Island. For
further comparison, Walmart operates 42 stores in Nebraska with two locations in Grand Island.
The closest other Walmart stores are in Hastings 21 miles to the south, York 40 miles to the east,
and Kearney 41 miles to the west
Grand Island’s regional transportation network includes Interstate 80 providing east-west access
throughout Nebraska, linking Grand Island with Lincoln and Omaha to the east and Kearney to
the west. U.S. Highways 281/34 provide north-south access to such area cities as Hastings,
Doniphan, and St. Paul. Therefore, the Conestoga Marketplace site benefits from excellent
regional access and the opportunity to capitalize on a large trade area population and customer
base. The retail trade areas for the proposed Conestoga Marketplace are defined as a primary trade
area within a 30-minute drive time, a secondary trade area within a 40-minute drive time, and a
tertiary trade area within a 50-minute drive time. The trade areas boundaries are illustrated on the
following page.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 31 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 5
Conestoga Marketplace Retail Trade Areas
.
A trade area’s population demographics play a significant role in the demand for retail goods and
services. Of specific importance to the level and composition of a trade area’s supportable retail
market are population growth, age distribution, educational attainment, and household income.
The balance of this section of the study will address the Conestoga Mall’s trade area demographics.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 32 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 6
Population Growth Trends
Trade area population size and growth are key components for quantifying supportable retail sales
volumes. The table below outlines trade area population growth from 2010 through 2022 as well
as 5-year population projections through 2027.
Trade Area Population Trends
Trade Area Total
Year Primary Secondary Tertiary Population
2010 Census 86,814 27,129 44,466 158,409
2020 Census 91,771 26,889 46,431 165,091
2022 Estimate 92,493 26,775 46,837 166,105
2027 Forecast 92,104 26,750 47,440 166,294
Source: Esri Business Analyst.
From 2010 to 2022, the entire trade area within a 50-minute drive time recorded steady population
growth, increasing by 4.9 percent, adding nearly 7,700 new residents. By 2022, the primary,
secondary, and tertiary trade area population totaled 166,105. The trade area’s steady population
growth has fueled a growing demand for retail goods and services and the size of the population
is sufficient to support a diverse and deep retail market. From 2022 through 2027, Esri Business
Analyst forecasts the trade area population to remain flat, reaching 166,294 residents.
The City of Grand Island with 52,335 residents (U.S. Census estimate as of July 1, 2021)
accounts for just 31.5 percent of the total trade area population. Given Grand Island’s status
as a region shopping destination, this population disparity suggests the city captures
significant retail sales from nonresidents.
The primary trade area within a 30-minute drive time from the Conestoga Mall site supports a
current population of 92,493 residents, of which 56.6 percent are Grand Island residents. From
2010 to 2022, the primary trade area population increased by 6.5 percent, adding 5,679 residents.
By 2027, the primary trade population is forecast to decrease by 0.4 percent. The primary trade
area population outside of Grand Island consists primarily of rural communities with a limited
retail base, providing the opportunity to capture retail sales from outside of the city.
The secondary trade area within a 30- to 40-minute drive from the Conestoga Mall site supports a
current population of 26,775 residents, totaling 119,268 residents within a 40-minute drive time.
From 2010 to 2022, the secondary trade area population declined by 1.3 percent.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 33 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 7
Population Age Distribution Trends
The age composition of a community’s population plays a significant role in expenditures for retail
goods and services. As a person ages their retail needs change. Each age group is at a different
stage in life and possesses differing retail needs.
The trade area population age distribution for 2022 is summarized in the table below by six primary
age groups, including children (0-14 years), adolescent (15-24 years), young adults (25 to 34
years), family/working adults (35-44 years); empty nesters (45-64 years) and elderly (65+ years).
Each age group possesses distinctively different consumption and housing needs.
Trade Area Population Age Distribution; 2022
Trade Area State
Age Group Primary Secondary Tertiary Average
0-14 Years 20.4% 20.0% 19.5% 20.7%
15-24 Years 12.1% 12.1% 13.1% 13.9%
25-34 Years 12.9% 12.7% 13.4% 13.3%
35-44 Years 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 12.5%
45-64 Years 24.3% 24.7% 23.9% 24.1%
65+ Years 18.0% 18.6% 18.3% 15.6%
Source: Esri Business Analyst.
Children ages 0 to 14 years are not consumers per say, but their presence within a household
generates retail expenditures on apparel, accessories, and groceries. This age group accounts for
19.5 percent to 20.4 percent of the trade area population which is slightly lower the statewide
average of 20.7 percent.
The adolescent population ages 15 to 24 is a key demographic for supporting the sales of apparel
and accessories, groceries, sporting goods, music, consumer electronics, eating and drinking
places, and general merchandise. Adolescents account for 12.1 percent to 13.1 percent of the
Andover population. By comparison, adolescents account for 13.9 percent of the Nebraska
population.
Young adults aged 25 to 34 years generally are new to the workforce. These tech savvy young
adults are heavy consumers of electronics, apparel and accessories, and entertainment. Young
adults account for 12.7 percent to 13.4 percent of the trade area population which compares to the
statewide rate of 13.3 percent.
The population ages 35 to 44 are in their child raising and principal consumer years, with
expenditures favoring hardware, furniture and home furnishings, consumer electronics,
department stores, and eating and drinking places. Family/working adults account for 11.8 percent
to 12.1 percent of the trade area population, compared to 12.5 percent of the statewide population.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 34 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 8
The empty nester population includes those individuals ages 45 to 64 years. The trade area’s
population ages 45 to 64 years account for 23.9 percent to 24.7 percent of the total population,
compared to 24.1 percent statewide. These empty nester age groups provide opportunities for
restaurants, entertainment, travel, and healthcare services.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, per capita retail expenditures by seniors 65+ years
old is 18 percent lower than those under the age of 35 years and 41 percent lower than people ages
35 to 64 years. Residents 65+ years of age account for 18.0 percent to 18.6 percent of the Andover
population, compared to 15.6 percent of the statewide population. The senior population poses a
growing market for healthcare goods and services.
The trade area’s age composition, except for a slightly larger senior population, is consistent with
the statewide norm and indicates it is a community of young families with children. The trade area
population’s age distribution is favorable for retail expenditures on apparel, accessories, groceries,
sporting goods, music, consumer electronics, eating and drinking places, entertainment, and
general merchandise.
Educational Attainment
Because income increases with advancing educational attainment communities with high
education levels support higher levels of retail expenditures. Trade area residents on average are
slightly less educated than the statewide norm, supporting higher rates of high school graduates as
the highest level of educational attainment and lower rates of residents 25 years and over possess
an Associate degree of better. These lower educational attainment trends are common within rural
communities. The trade area’s educational attainment rates will be more relevant on income levels
than the retail expenditure patterns.
Trade Area Educational Attainment Levels
For Residents 25 Years and Over
Trade Area State of
Highest Education Level Obtained Primary Secondary Tertiary Nebraska
Less than 9th Grade 4.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8%
9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma 6.3% 5.9% 5.2% 4.6%
High School Graduate / GED 31.1% 31.2% 30.1% 25.7%
Some College, No Degree 21.8% 22.3% 22.1% 22.7%
Associate Degree 11.5% 12.0% 12.1% 10.7%
Bachelor's Degree 17.2% 16.9% 18.7% 21.4%
Graduate / Professional Degree 7.9% 7.7% 8.5% 11.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Esri Business Analyst.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 35 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 9
Household Income
The table below summarizes 2018 household income comparisons for the trade area and State of
Nebraska. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated the median household income for Nebraska of
$63,015.
Trends in Households by Income
Trade Areas vs. State of Nebraska
Trade Area State of
Income Bracket Primary Secondary Tertiary Nebraska
Less than $15,000 8.9% 8.9% 8.8% 8.8%
$15,000 - $24,999 7.8% 7.9% 8.2% 8.2%
$25,000 - $34,999 8.8% 8.8% 8.6% 9.2%
$35,000 - $49,999 13.2% 13.3% 12.7% 13.3%
$50,000 - $74,999 19.6% 19.5% 19.4% 19.3%
$75,000 - $99,999 16.1% 15.8% 15.8% 14.1%
$100,000 - $149,999 15.5% 16.1% 16.5% 15.9%
$150,000 - $199,999 6.3% 6.2% 6.4% 6.1%
$200,000+ 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 5.2%
Totals 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Median Household Income $61,903 $61.823 $62,511 $63,015
Source: U.S. Census and Esri Business Analyst,
Households earning less than $35,000 annually possess low purchasing power while high-income
households earning $100,000 or more possess much higher purchasing power and represent a
market for luxury automobiles, retail goods and services, travel, and entertainment.
The primary trade area’s median household income of $61,903 compares to the statewide median
of $63,015, with slightly lower rates of households earning less than $35,000 and high-income
households earning $100,000 or more.
An estimated 25.6 percent of secondary trade area households earn less than $35,000 annually
compared to 26.2 percent for Nebraska. High-income households earning $100,000 or more
account for 25.8 percent of primary trade area households compared to 27.2 percent statewide.
For the entire trade area an estimated 25.6 percent of households earn less than $35,000 compared
to 26.2 percent for Nebraska. High-income households earning $100,000 or more account for 26.4
percent of all trade area households compared to 27.2 percent statewide.
To conclude, income levels and purchasing power for trade area households are only marginally
lower than the state. The net effect is achievable household retail expenditures comparable the
state norm.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 36 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
10
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
The Retail Market Analysis quantifies the ability of Grand Island to support additional near-term
retail development. In doing so, the study provides historic trends in City sales tax collections,
competitive retail market overview, trade area capture, retail pull factor trends, and traded area
home improvement supplies sales.
Grand Island Sales Tax Collections
The City of Grand Island provided actual sales tax receipts for fiscal years 2015-2016 through
2021-2022. The bar chart below provides an illustration of historical fiscal year trends in the City’s
sales tax receipts.
From fiscal year 2015-16 to fiscal year 2020-21, sales tax receipts collected by the City of Grand
Island increased by 58.1 percent, reaching $25.9 million. Through the first eleven months of fiscal
year 2021-22 sales tax receipts were up $3.0 million, or 12.7 percent over the same 11-month
timeframe during the prior fiscal year. The steady gains in sales tax collections are an indication
of Grand Island’s regional retail draw and the ability to attract shoppers and retail expenditures
from outside the city limits.
Grand Island Retail Market Overview
According to the Grand Island Retail Market Report published by CoStar, the Conestoga Mall is
located within the Grand Island market that consists of the City of Grand Island and several
surrounding rural communities such as St. Paul, Palmer, Central City, Doniphan, and Alda. The
boundaries of the Grand Island market are illustrated on the following page.
$16,388,423 $16,331,201 $16,025,736
$18,508,324
$23,248,037
$25,911,090 $26,550,583
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
City of Grand Island FY Sales Tax Receipts
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 37 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
11
By the third quarter 2022 the inventory of retail space in the Grand Island market totaled 5.15
million square feet. General retail and neighborhood center space accounted for all 3.89 million
square feet and 659,282 square feet, respectively. The table below provides operating data for the
Grand Island market by shopping center type for the third quarter 2022.
Grand Island, Nebraska Market
Retail Market Conditions; 2022 Q3
Building Vacancy Average Absorption Space
Center Type Sq. Ft. Rate Rent 2022 YTD U/C
Malls 540,733 41.6% $7.69 -5,266 0
Power Center 0 0
Neighborhood Center 659,282 8.0% $10.25 -4,879 0
Strip Center 64,363 0.0% $10.13 0 0
General Retail 3,885,851 0.1% $11.74 7,674 0
Totals 5,150,229 5.5% $11.10 -2,471 0
Source: CoStar.
By the third quarter 2022, the Grand Island market was operating at a healthy vacancy rate of 5.5
percent. Mall space was operating at a vacancy rate of 41.6 percent with approximately 225,000
square feet of space unoccupied. Strip center space is fully occupied with general retail space
operating at a vacancy rate of 0.1 percent. Neighborhood centers are most overbuilt operating at
vacancy of 8.0 percent. Through the third quarter 2022, the Grand Island market experienced
negative absorption of 2,471 square feet of retail space. No retail space is currently under
construction within the Grand Island market.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 38 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
12
From 2010 through 2021, Costar reported 202,305 square feet of retail space was constructed in
the Grand Island market. Retail construction peaked in 2016 and 2017 with the completion of
102,040 square feet of space. New retail construction activity has declined significantly since
2018 with the addition of just 21,657 square feet of space.
From 2010 through 2021, Costar reported 232,761 square feet of retail space was absorbed in the
Grand Island market. Retail space absorption peaked in 2015, 2017, and 2021. Despite the
negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic had on the retail industry, during 2020 and 2021
tenant demand was strong in the Grand Island market with net absorption of retail space totaling
176,260 square feet of space.
48,705
-53,736
45,965
-6,918
-170,234
196,084
-9,693
154,786
43
-148,501
24,492
151,768
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Grand Island Retail Market
Trends in New Inventory (Sq. Ft.)
48,705
-53,736
45,965
-6,918
-170,234
196,084
-9,693
154,786
43
-148,501
24,492
151,768
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Grand Island Retail Market
Trends in Space Absorption (Sq. Ft.)
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 39 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
13
The City of Grand Island supports two principal retail corridors. Locust Avenue south of Bismark
Road represents the older commercial corridor featuring a mix of chain restaurants, strip centers,
and hotels. Highway 281 on the far west side of Grand Island from U.S. Highway 30 north to
Capital Avenue represents the new retail corridor with large-scale shopping centers such as
Northwest Commons, Eagle Run, Grand Corners, and Conestoga Mall anchored by national big-
box retailers. Notable retailers operating along Highway 281 include Walmart, Sam’s Club,
Dillard’s, Best Buy, Kohl’s, TJ Maxx, Home Depot, and Menards.
Highway 281 Corridor Major Retailers
Department Major Junior Restaurant
Stores Anchors Anchors Chains
Dillard’s Walmart Dick's Sporting Goods Applebee's
Sam's Club Hibbett Sports Buffalo Wild Wings
Home Depot Petco Perkins
Menard's Kohl's Red Lobster
TJ Maxx Olive Garden
Best Buy Sonic
Office Max Taco Bell
Ashley Homestore Texas Roadhouse
Burlington Wendy's
Hobby Lobby IHOP
Culver’s
Raising Cane’s
Located on U.S. Highway 281 between State Street and Capital Avenue, Northwest Commons is
a redevelopment of the original enclosed Grand Island Mall. In addition to three new outparcels,
the development includes over 150,000 square feet of junior anchor and shops space designed with
a “main street” layout. Anchor tenants for Northwest Commons include Dick’s Sporting Goods,
Hibbett Sports, Shopko, Petco, and Burlington.
The Eagle Run shopping center at U.S. Highway 281 and Faidley Avenue is anchored by Home
Depot and Ashley Homestore. Outparcel tenants include Buffalo Wild Wings, Olive Garden,
Panda Express, Panera Bread, Verizon, Exchange Bank, Freddy’s Frozen Custard, and Raising
Canes.
Conestoga Mall’s location within a regional shopping destination in the heart of the Highway 281
retail corridor offers the site characteristics that are favorable for supporting redevelopment with
a mix of big-box retailers, small shops, entertainment, and restaurant uses.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 40 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
14
Trade Area Capture
Information about a community’s retail trade area can help assess the ability of local merchants to
attract and capture the retail business of residents. The trade area capture (“TAC”) is an estimate
of the number of people who shop in the local area during a certain period. TAC assumes that
residents will buy goods at the same rate as the state average, and that the only force that causes a
variation in spending patterns is income. The formula for calculating TAC is:
TAC = Community’s Actual Retail Sales
State Per Capita Sales X Community’s Per Capita Income/State Per Capita Income
If the TAC estimate is larger than the community’s population, it suggests: 1) the community is
attracting customers outside its boundaries or 2) residents of the community are spending more
than the state average. If the estimate is smaller than the community’s population: 1) the
community is losing its customers to other regions for retail purchases or 2) residents of the
community are spending less than the state average.
During FY 2020-21, the City of Grand Island’s sales tax collections totaled $25,911,090. At the
City sales tax rate of 2.0 percent, taxable retail sales amounted to $1.3 billion.
During 2021, non-automobile taxable retail sales in Nebraska totaled $39,902,075,895. The U.S.
Census estimated the population for Nebraska at 1,963,692 residents, equating to per capita sales
of $20,320.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Grand Island’s population is estimated at 52,335 residents
with a per capita income of $28,517.
The U.S. Census estimated the population for Nebraska at 1,963,692 residents and per capita
income of $33,205.
$1,295,554,500
Trade Area Capture = $20,320 x ($28,517 / $33,205) = 74,239 Residents
Grand Island’s resident population of 52,335 and estimated TAC of 74,239 residents illustrates the
city’s well above average capture of retail sales from nonresidents.
Grand Island’s large concentration of national retailers that operate along the Highway 281
corridor and distance to alternative shopping destinations in Lincoln, Omaha, and Kearney
accounts for the high trade area capture.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 41 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
15
Retail Pull Factor
Pull factors (“PF”) measure a community’s ability to attract shoppers, residents and non-residents
alike, to make retail purchases within the community. A pull factor is a measure of the strength
of a community’s retail trade, based on a comparison of local spending in relation to that of a wider
geographic area (e.g., the state), with a measure of 1.0 representing a perfect balance. A pull factor
greater than 1.0 indicates that the community is pulling in retail sales from beyond its boundaries
and the balance of trade is favorable. Alternatively, a pull factor less than 1.0 indicates that the
community is not capturing local shoppers and is experiencing retail sales leakage. Pull factors
are calculated by dividing the TAC by the community’s population.
PF = Trade Area Capture
Community Population
Grand Island’s pull factor was calculated by dividing the TAC population of 74,239 by the
estimated resident population of 52,335. The net result is a pull factor of 1.42, translating into a
retail sales capture at a rate 42 percent greater than the statewide average. This pull factor suggests
that nonresidents have a significant impact on Grand Island’s taxable retail sales.
Trade Area Retail Sales
Most retail sales for the proposed Conestoga Marketplace will be derived from the primary and
secondary trade areas. This section of the study quantifies potential primary and secondary trade
area sales of principal retail merchandise categories. Potential retail sales estimates by industry
group were provided by Esri Business Analyst’s Spending Potential Index and derived from the
Consumer Expenditure Surveys published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Spending
Potential Index is household based and represents the amount spent for a product or service relative
to a national average of 100. Annual retail sales for both the trade areas are outlined in the table
on the following page.
The principal retail industry groups account for potential annual retail sales of $867 million within
the primary trade area and $266 million within the secondary trade area, for a total of $1.13 billion.
During fiscal year 2020-21, the City of Grand Island reported taxable retail sales of $1.3 billion.
With the Spending Potential Index based on the national average, applying Grand Island’s
retail pull factor of 1.42 suggests the potential exists for the city to capture up to $1.6 billion
of retail expenditures.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 42 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
16
Potential Retail Expenditures by Store Type
Primary and Secondary Trade Areas
Total
Retail Category Primary Secondary Sales
Apparel & Accessories $47,828,229 $14,096,955 $61,925,184
Footwear $15,722,206 $4,536,973 $20,259,179
Watches & Jewelry $4,269,345 $1,327,182 $5,596,527
Computers $6,152,655 $1,821,479 $7,974,134
Entertainment & Recreation $110,220,001 $34,410,047 $144,630,048
Pet Supplies $28,163,047 $9,565,516 $37,728,563
Toys, Crafts & Hobbies $4,118,484 $1,258,031 $5,376,515
Sporting Goods $6,599,526 $2,100,823 $8,700,349
Groceries $180,851,092 $55,635,281 $236,486,373
Food Away from Home $118,901,505 $34,955,592 $153,857,097
Alcoholic Beverages $19,288,987 $5,686,207 $24,975,194
Personal Care Products $16,555,278 $5,028,462 $21,583,740
Prescription Drugs $12,915,046 $4,265,750 $17,180,796
Nonprescription Drugs $6,109,883 $2,058,842 $8,168,725
Eyeglasses & Contacts $3,533,685 $1,136,501 $4,670,186
Household Furnishings $10,860,545 $3,243,826 $14,104,371
Household Supplies $27,219,480 $8,573,330 $35,792,810
Appliances $13,902,028 $4,109,572 $18,011,600
Furniture $20,306,977 $5,957,116 $26,264,093
Lawn & Garden $18,143,559 $5,934,365 $24,077,924
Gasoline & Motor Oil $80,941,384 $24,584,227 $105,525,611
Home Improvements $114,629,735 $36,033,361 $150,663,096
Total Retail Expenditures $867,232,677 $266,319,438 $1,133,552,115
Source: Esri Business Analyst.
The proposed Conestoga Marketplace will be anchored by a new to market Anchor Store. The
closest comparable anchor store would be Target in Kearney located 43 miles west of the
Conestoga Marketplace site. Like many retail industry groups, department stores tend to cluster
together which create a major customer destination and drive increased sales volumes. Walmart
and Same’s Club operate stores in Grand Island. The location of direct competition and
comparable store in Kearney provides the opportunity for the proposed New Anchor Store at
Conestoga Marketplace to serve an expanded retail trade area and capturing significant out-of-
town sales volumes.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 43 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
17
SITE EVALUATION
Retail developers and major retailers evaluate potential sites based on a series of site-specific
criteria. Common selection criteria when evaluating prospective development sites include parcel
size and dimensions, visibility and exposure, accessibility, traffic counts, trade area demographics,
and direct competition. Using these site selection criteria, the proposed Conestoga Mall
redevelopment site was evaluated for the potential to support development of an anchored
shopping center.
Parcel Size and Dimensions
Redevelopment of Conestoga Mall is classified as a power center. A power center is occupied by
category-dominant anchors, including discount department stores, off-price stores, wholesale
clubs, with only a few small tenants. The gross building area for a power center ranges from
250,000 square feet to 600,000 square feet.
To accommodate the building sizes and associated parking and retention requirements, power
center development sites typically range in size from 25 to 80 acres. A square or rectangular site
is best suited for store design.
The Conestoga Mall site is rectangular and totals 50.6 acres. The project plan calls for 366,938
square feet of retail space, including major anchors, small shops, and outparcels designed for
restaurants and shop space,
Visibility
Visibility and exposure have a considerable influence on a shopping center’s achievable retail sales
volumes. Power centers should possess visibility from a highway or major arterial street.
The Conestoga Mall site is located at the interchange of U.S. Highway 281 and 13th Street,
providing the visibility required by major and junior anchors, small shops, and outparcels.
Accessibility
Power center sites rely on an efficient local transportation network that typically includes a mix of
major and minor arterial streets.
Interstate 80 is located a short distance south of the Conestoga Mall site with a major interchange
at U.S. Highway 34/281. Convenient access to Interstate 80 and north-south connect to U.S.
Highway 34/281 will afford convenient regional access.
Local vehicular access to the Conestoga Mall site provided via Grand Island’s major arterial
network. Both 13th Street and U.S. Highway 281 will provide the site with adequate local
accessibility and on-site ingress and egress.
The Conestoga Mall site’s regional, local, and on-site vehicular access is sufficient to
accommodate development of a power center.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 44 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
18
Traffic Counts
The vehicular traffic counts on arterial streets that flow past the site are important when evaluating
a potential retail development site.
Average daily traffic counts for 2021 reported by the Nebraska Department of Transportation past
the Conestoga Mall site are 19,450 vehicles on U.S. Highway 81 north of 13th Street. The high
average daily traffic count provides exposure suitable for development of a power center.
Trade Area Demographics
Grand Island’s retail trade area within a 50-minute drive time supports a current population of
166,105 residents and a median household income of $62,511. The large adolescent population is
sufficient for supporting the sales of apparel and accessories; groceries; sporting goods; music;
home electronics; eating and drinking places; and general merchandise. The large population ages
25 to 44 are in their principal consumer years, favors hardware; furniture and home furnishings;
home electronics; department stores; and eating and drinking places. The growing senior
population generates demand for medical goods and services. Over 42 percent of households earn
$75,000 or more per year that is ideal for supporting above average per capita retail sales. These
consumption patterns and demographic characteristics bode well for the potential of Grand Island
to support a diverse retail market.
Competition
Grand Island serves as a regional retail destination garnering a retail pull factor of 1.42, indicating
retail sales at a rate 42 percent greater than the statewide average. Highway 281 is the city’s premiere
retail corridor housing such major national retailers as Walmart, Sam’s Club, Kohl’s, Dick’s
Sporting Goods, Home Depot, Menard’s, Best Buy, and TJ Maxx.
Like many types of retail businesses, big-box stores and chain restaurants tend to cluster together
which create a major customer destination and drive increased sales volumes. The Conestoga
Mall’s location within Grand Island’s principal retail corridor will assist in attracting retailers to
the redevelopment project.
Conclusions
The Conestoga Mall site in Grand Island possess the necessary characteristics to support
redevelopment into a power center, offering the necessary size, dimensions, visibility,
accessibility, exposure, and trade area demographics. The site’s presence within the U.S. Highway
81 retail corridor and Grand Island’s status as a retail destination supporting a regional trade area
creates the necessary retail environment for redevelopment of Conestoga Mall.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 45 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
19
RETAIL SALES ESTIMATES
This section of the study forecasts annual retail sales at stabilization for redevelopment of the
Conestoga Mall property. The project plan yields 366,938 square feet of retail space consisting of approximately 150,000 square feet of the mall’s existing retail space, a 147,863 square foot New
Anchor Store, a 150-room hotel, and nine out parcels supporting restaurants and retail shop space.
Conestoga Mall Redevelopment Plan
Building Hotel
Lot # Use Sq. Ft. Rooms
1A Outparcel - Restaurant 4,900
1B Outparcel - Retail Shops 14,000
1C Outparcel - Retail Shops 10,000
1D Hotel 150
2 Outparcel - Restaurant 2,275
3 Existing Mall Shops 87,000
Existing Best Buy 25,000
Movie Theatre/Entertainment Complex 38,000
4 Outparcel - Retail Shops 8,400
5 Outparcel - Restaurant 6,400
6 Outparcel - Restaurant 6,400
7 Outparcel - Restaurant 3,600
8 Outparcel - Restaurant 4,000
9 Outparcel - Restaurant 9,100
10 Anchor Store 147,863
Totals 366,938 150
Taxable sales volumes and capture of net new sales for the Conestoga Mall redevelopment plan
were estimated based on several sources, including:
1. Sales data published by National Retail Federation’s 100 Top Retailers 2022
2. Nation’s Restaurant News Top 100
3. Sales data published by the International Council of Shopping Centers
4. Annual Retail Trade Survey published by the U.S. Census Bureau
5. Actual sales reported by Annual Reports for Best Buy and major anchor stores
6. Demographic and retail sales by industry data provided by Ersi Business Analyst
7. Internal data base of actual sales of comparable major stores and movie theatre chains
8. Grand Island’s retail pull factor
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 46 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
20
Forecast Retail Sales
The project plan calls for a 147,863 square foot New Anchor Store to anchor the redeveloped
Conestoga Mall. The closest comparable store to the New Anchor Store in Grand Island is in
Kearney 43 miles to the west and Lincoln 99 miles to the east. The New Anchor Store’s principal
competitors in Grand Island are Walmart and Sam’s Club.
Target, as used as an example for the New Anchor Store, is a department store chain that operates
1,926 stores throughout the United States, including 14 stores in Nebraska. Target sells a wide
assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the general merchandise stores offer
an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The average
store size is 126,000 square feet, with 79 percent of all stores ranging in size from 50,000 square
feet to 169,999 square feet. The stores in Nebraska average 143,200 square feet in size.
During 2021, Target’s gross sales totaled $104.6 billion, averaging $54.3 million per store and
$437 per square foot of store space. A reported 96.4 percent of gross sales were instore sales. In
2021, comparable store sales by 12.7 percent, on top of record 19.3 percent growth in 2020. Sales
by product category included 26 percent beauty and household essentials, 20 percent food and
beverage, 19 percent home furnishings and décor, 18 percent hardlines, and 17 percent apparel and
accessories.
Target shoppers tend to be between the ages of 18 and 44, though the most avid shoppers from
within this group are married women in their 30’s with a middle to upper-middle class income of
between $65,000 and $80,000 per year. Target shoppers tend to visit Target once every few weeks
and spend about $50 per visit. The 30-minute drive primary trade area supports a population of
92,493, 25 percent is between the ages of 25 and 44 years, and 35.7 percent of households possess
an annual income of $50,000 to $99,999.
Based on the above information and level of direct competition, trade area demographics, and
Grand Island’s regional draw, the proposed New Anchor Store’s stabilized year sales are forecast
at $450 to $475 per square foot, equating to $66.5 million to $70.2 million.
The 150,000 square feet of existing mall space will be upgraded and house the existing 25,000
square foot Best Buy store, 38,000 square foot movie theatre/entertainment complex, and 87,000
square feet of small shop space.
The existing 25,000 square foot Best Buy store will remain. Best Buy is a merchandiser of
consumer electronics, entertainment, computing and mobile phones, appliances, and services.
Computing and mobile phones account for 41 percent of gross sales, followed by consumer
electronics at 31 percent and appliances at 14 percent. Best Buy operates 982 U.S. stores and 160
international stores, with five stores in Nebraska. The closest Best Buy store to the Grand Island
location is in Lincoln, Nebraska approximately 100 miles to the east. The U.S. stores average
38,300 square feet of retail space.
During fiscal year 2022, Best Buy’s gross sales totaled $51.8 billion, averaging $45.3 million per
store and $1,253 per square foot of store space. In fiscal year 2022, comparable store sales by 10.4
percent, up from 9.7 percent growth in fiscal year 2021.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 47 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
21
Stabilized year sales for the Best Buy store following redevelopment of Conestoga Mall are
forecast at $1,000 to $1,100 per square foot, equating to $25.0 million to $27.5 million.
The 38,000 square foot movie theatre/entertainment complex will have nine screens and expanded
food and beverage operations, including alcohol. Major movie theatre chains operating in the U.S.
include AMC and Cinemark.
AMC Entertainment Holdings is the world’s largest theatrical exhibition business and owns,
operates, or has interests in movie theatres primarily in the United States and Europe. As of
December 31, 2021, the company owned, leased, or operated 946 theatres and 10,562 screens in
12 countries, including 593 theatres with a total of 7,755 screens in the United States and 353
theatres and 2,807 screens in European markets and Saudi Arabia. U.S. theatres averaged 13
screens per theatre. During 2019 prior to the pandemic the U.S. theatres reported gross revenues
of $4.02 billion, averaging $6.33 million per theatre and $497,060 per screen. During 2020, as the
pandemic closed theatres, gross revenues dropped to $826.7 million, or $2.1 million per theatre
and $158,129 per screen. Operations improved in 2021 with gross revenues of $1.876 billion,
average sales per theatre of $3.16 million, and $241,883 per screen.
Cinemark Holdings operate in the motion picture exhibition industry, with theatres in the United
States and Latin America. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 522 theatres and 5,868
screens. U.S. theatres averaged 14 screens per theatre. As a result of the pandemic, domestic
theatres closed in March 2020 and began reopening in June 2020. It was not until mid-2021 until
all U.S. theatres reopened. During 2019 prior to the pandemic the U.S. theatres reported gross
revenues of $2.58 billion, averaging $7.48 million per theatre and $555,630 per screen. During
2020, gross revenues dropped to $556.9 million, or $1.68 million per theatre and $123,563 per
screen. Operations improved in 2021 with gross revenues of $1.293.6 billion, average sales per
theatre of $4.03 million, and $293,466 per screen.
The movie theater/entertainment complex is forecast to generate average annual sales of $525,000
to $550,000 per screen, for a total $4,725,000 to $4,950,000 per year at stabilization.
The Conestoga Mall project plan calls for the retaining and renovating 87,000 square feet of existing
shop space. Existing small shop tenants operating at the mall include such national retailers as
American Eagle, Bath & Body Works, Buckle, Hallmark, Hot Topic, Lenscrafters, and others. Based
on sales reported by the National Retail Federation’s 100 Top Retailers, stabilized year sales for the
retained shop space are forecast at $300 per square foot to $350 per square foot of building area.
The Conestoga Mall project plan calls for the construction of a 150-room hotel. This analysis
assumed a limited-service hotel will occupy Parcel 1D. Examples of limited-service hotels operating
in Grand Island include Comfort Inn, Quality Inn, and Fairfield Inn. At a stabilized occupancy rate
of 65 percent and an average daily rate of $130 to $140, annual sales are estimated at $4.6 million to
$5.0 million.
The Conestoga Mall project plan calls for ten (10) outparcels designed for the construction of 69,075
square feet of retail space. Building areas for the outparcels range from 2,275 square feet to 14,000
square feet designed to accommodate restaurants and shop space.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 48 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
22
Lots 2 and 8 are designed to be occupied by fast food restaurants, supporting buildings of 2,275 square
feet and 4,000 square feet, including drive-thru lanes. According to Nation’s Restaurant News, such
national fast food restaurant chains as Arby’s, Burger King, KFC, Popeye’s, Taco Bell, Wendy’s,
and Starbuck’s Coffee reported average store sales of $1.05 million to $1.9 million, averaging
$1.45 million. Stabilized year sales for the planned fast food restaurants are forecast at $700 to $750
per square foot for Lot 2 and $400 to $500 per square foot Lot 8.
Lots 5, 6, and 7 are designed for outparcels envisioned for sit-down restaurants, accommodating 3,600
square feet to 6,400 square feet of building area. According to sales data published by Nation’s
Restaurant News, such national casual dining restaurant chains as Applebee’s, Carrabba’s Italian
Garden, Chili’s, Longhorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, Outback Steakhouse, Red Lobster, Red
Robin, and IHOP reported average store sales of $1.35 million to $3.9 million, averaging $2.9
million. Stabilized year sales for the planned sit-down restaurants are forecast at $400 to $550 per
square foot.
Lots 1A, 1B, 1C, 4, and 9 are envisioned for freestanding shop space, accommodating 4,900 square
feet, 14,000 square feet, 10,000 square feet, 8,400 square feet, and 9,100 square feet of building area.
Freestanding shop space is typically tenanted by food and beverage and national retailers. Potential
tenant types include such chains Chipotle, Moe’s, Panera Bread, Five Guys, Jimmy John’s, Panda
Express, Ulta Beauty, AT&T, and Verizon. Based on sales reported by the National Retail
Federation’s 100 Top Retailers, stabilized year sales for the freestanding shop space are forecast at
$300 per square foot to $350 per square foot of building area.
Based on trade area demographics, the status of Grand Island as a regional shopping destination,
and the level of direct competition, stabilized sales for the proposed redevelopment of Conestoga
Mall are forecast at $151 to $165 million.
Conestoga Mall Redevelopment Sales Forecasts
Building Per Sq. Ft. Sales Annual Sales
Lot # Use Sq. Ft. Low High Low High
1A Outparcel - Restaurant 4,900 $250 $275 $1,225,000 $1,347,500
1B Outparcel - Shops 14,000 $300 $350 $4,200,000 $4,900,000
1C Outparcel - Shops 10,000 $300 $350 $3,000,000 $3,500,000
1D Hotel $4,626,375 $4,982,250
2 Outparcel - Fast Food Restaurant 2,275 $700 $750 $1,592,500 $1,706,250
3 Existing Mall Shops 87,000 $300 $350 $26,100,000 $30,450,000
Existing Best Buy 25,000 $1,000 $1,100 $25,000,000 $27,500,000
Movie Theatre/Entertainment 38,000 $4,725,000 $4,950,000
4 Outparcel - Shops 8,400 $300 $350 $2,520,000 $2,940,000
5 Outparcel - Restaurant 6,400 $400 $425 $2,560,000 $2,720,000
6 Outparcel - Restaurant 6,400 $400 $425 $2,560,000 $2,720,000
7 Outparcel - Restaurant 3,600 $500 $550 $1,800,000 $1,980,000
8 Outparcel - Fast Food Restaurant 4,000 $425 $500 $1,700,000 $2,000,000
9 Outparcel - Shops 9,100 $300 $350 $2,730,000 $3,185,000
10 Anchor Store 147,863 $450 $475 $66,538,350 $70,234,925
Totals 366,938 $150,877,225 $165,115,925
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 49 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
23
Net New Sales Capture
Given Grand Island’s status as a regional shopping destination the redeveloped Conestoga Mall
will capture net new sales from outside of the City of Grand Island. Excluding the hotel, stabilized
year retail sales for the redeveloped property are forecast at $146.2 million to $160.1 million.
The principal retail industry groups account for potential annual retail sales of $867 million within
the primary trade area and $266 million within the secondary trade area, for a total of $1.13 billion.
During fiscal year 2020-21, the City of Grand Island reported taxable retail sales of $1.3 billion.
Applying Grand Island’s retail pull factor of 1.42 suggests the potential exists for the city to capture
up to $1.6 billion of retail expenditures.
The primary trade area typically accounts for 70 to 80 percent of a retail store’s gross sales. The
Conestoga Mall’s primary trade area within a 30-minute drive time supports a current population
of 92,493 residents, of which just 31.5 percent are Grand Island residents. Comparable stores for
the New Anchor Store and Best Buy are located well outside the primary trade area. The primary
trade area exclusive of Grand Island is estimated to support 35 to 40 percent of forecast sales for
the proposed redeveloped Conestoga Mall, or $51.2 million to $64.1 annually.
The secondary trade area typically accounts for 15 to 20 percent of a retail store’s gross sales. The
secondary trade area within a 30- to 40-minute drive time from Grand Island supports a current
population of 26,775 residents. The secondary trade area supports $266 million in annual sales.
The secondary trade area is estimated to support 5 to 7 percent of forecast retail sales, or $7.3
million to $11.2 million annually.
The tertiary trade area forms the broadest area from which customers are drawn. A small
percentage of store sales are generated from this trade area. The tertiary trade area is estimated to
support 2 to 4 percent of forecast retail sales, or $2.9 million to $6.4 million annually.
To conclude, the redeveloped Conestoga Mall is forecast to generate stabilized annual retail sales
of $146.2 million to $160.1 million. Net new sales to the City of Grand Island are estimated to
account for 42 to 51 percent of total annual sales, amounting to $61.4 million to $81.7 million.
Proposed Conestoga Mall Redevelopment
Estimated Out-of-Town Sales
Annual Sales
Trade Area Low High
Estimated Retail Sales $146,250,850 $160,133,675
Primary Trade Area $51,187,798 $64,053,470
Secondary Trade Area $7,312,543 $11,209,357
Tertiary Trade Area $2,925,017 $6,405,347
Total Out-of-Town Sales $61,425,357 $81,668,174
% of Total 42.0% 51.0%
Notes: *Excludes hotel sales.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 50 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
24
Conclusions
Grand Island serves as a regional shopping destination attracting customers from well outside the
City limits. Much of the reason for Grand Island’s regional draw is the presence of a large cluster
of major retailers not operating stores within a 40+ minute drive time.
Since fiscal year 2015-16, sales tax receipts collected by the City of Grand Island have increased
at an impressive average annual rate of 11.8 percent. The strong gains in sales tax collections are
an indication of Grand Island’s regional retail draw and the ability to attract shoppers and retail
expenditures from outside the city limits.
By the third quarter 2022 the inventory of retail space in the Grand Island market totaled 5.15
million square feet, operating at a healthy vacancy rate of 5.5 percent. From 2010 through 2021,
202,305 square feet of retail space was constructed in the Grand Island market and 232,761 square
feet of retail space was absorbed. With net space absorption outpacing new additions to supply,
the overall retail vacancy rate for the Grand Island market has remained healthy.
Grand Island supports two principal retail corridors. Locust Avenue south of Bismark Road
represents the older commercial corridor featuring a mix of chain restaurants, strip centers, and
hotels. Highway 281 represents the new retail corridor with large-scale shopping centers such as
Northwest Commons, Eagle Run, Grand Corners, and Conestoga Mall anchored by national big-
box retailers. Notable retailers operating along Highway 281 include Walmart, Sam’s Club,
Dillard’s, Best Buy, Kohl’s, TJ Maxx, Home Depot, and Menards.
Grand Island’s resident population of 52,335 and estimated TAC of 74,239 residents illustrates the
city’s well above average capture of retail sales from nonresidents. The large concentration of
national retailers and distance to alternative shopping destinations in Lincoln, Omaha, and Kearney
accounts for the high trade area capture.
Grand Island’s pull factor of 1.42 indicates a retail sales capture at a rate 42 percent greater than
the statewide average. The pull factor suggests that nonresidents have a significant impact on
Grand Island’s taxable retail sales.
Conestoga Mall’s location within a regional shopping destination in the heart of the Highway 281
retail corridor offers the site characteristics that are favorable for supporting redevelopment with
a mix of big-box retailers, small shops, entertainment, and restaurant uses.
The Conestoga Marketplace Redevelopment is forecast to generate stabilized annual sales of
$146.2 million to $160.1 million (excludes hotel sales), with net new sales to the City of Grand
Island estimated to account for 42 percent to 51 percent of total annual sales, amounting to $61.4
million to $81.7 million. These additional net new sales captured by the City of Grand Island
would prove to increase the City’s pull factor from a current rate of 1.42 to a range of 1.48 to 1.50.
The direct net new sales generated by the proposed Conestoga Mall redevelopment and captured
by the City of Grand Island would also produce a spinoff effect on Grand Island’s retail market in
the form of indirect sales, estimated at $24.6 million to $32.7 million annually.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 51 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
25
ADDENDA
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 52 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
26
EXHIBIT A
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc., Client Roster
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 53 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
27
CLIENT ROSTER
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. has provided real estate consulting services for many leading
organizations including:
American Furniture Warehouse (Englewood, CO)
Arizona State Land Department
Bain & Company, Inc. (Boston, Massachusetts)
Bayer Properties (Birmingham, Alabama)
Belz-Burrow (Jonesboro, Arkansas)
Bridgeview Bank Group
Browning-Ferris Industries
Burch & Cracchiolo PA
Cameron Group (Syracuse, New York)
Carrow Real Estate Services (Albany, New York)
Cass County, Missouri
Cavan Real Estate Investments
D.J. Christie, Inc. (Overland Park, Kansas)
Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints
City of Belton, Missouri
City of Coffeyville, Kansas
City of Dodge, Kansas
City of Fenton, Missouri
City of Glendale Economic Development Department
City of Hesston, Kansas
City of Independence, Missouri
City of Lee’s Summit, Missouri
City of Liberty, Missouri
City of Osage Beach, Missouri
City of Mesa Economic Development Department
City of Mesa Real Estate Services
City of Newton, Kansas
City of Norman, Oklahoma
City of Overland Park, Kansas
City of Phoenix Economic Development Department
City of Phoenix Real Estate Department
City of St. Charles, Missouri
City of Tucson Community Services Department
City of Wichita, Kansas
DeRito Partners Development, Inc.
Dial Realty (Omaha, Nebraska and Overland Park, Kansas)
DMB Associates
DMJM Arizona Inc.
EDAW, Inc. (Denver, Colorado)
Finney County Economic Development Corporation
W.M. Grace Development
Greystone Group (Newport Beach, California)
Hanford/Healy Advisory Company
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 54 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
28
Heritage Bank (Louisville, Colorado)
Highwoods Properties (Kansas City, MO)
Holiday Hospitality Corporation (Atlanta, Georgia)
JPI Development
Kaiser Permanente (Oakland, California)
Kessinger Hunter (Overland Park, Kansas)
Landmark Organization (Austin, Texas)
Lawrence Group (St. Louis, MO)
Lee’s Summit Economic Development Council (Lee’s Summit, Missouri)
Leavenworth County, Kansas
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (West Bloomfield, MI)
Lund Cadillac
Marriott International, Inc. (Washington, D.C.)
MCO Properties
Meritage Homes
Metropolitan Housing Corporation (Tucson, Arizona)
Monterey Homes
Mountain Funding (Charlotte, North Carolina)
National Realty Advisors
Navajo Nation Division of Economic Development
Opus Northwest Corporation
Opus West Corporation
Pederson Group, Inc.
Phelps Dodge Corporation
Piper Jaffray (Kansas City, Missouri)
Pivotal Group
Platte County Economic Development Council
Prieb Homes, Inc. (Olathe, Kansas)
Pulte Homes of Greater Kansas City
Pyramid Development (St. Louis, Missouri)
RED Development (Kansas City, Missouri)
R.H. Johnson & Company (Kansas City, Missouri)
Richmond American Homes
Royal Properties (Champaign, Illinois)
Jack Stack Barbecue
Steiner + Associates, Inc. (Columbus, Ohio)
Summit Development Group (St. Louis, Missouri)
SWD Holdings (San Francisco, California)
The Innova Group Tucson (Tucson, Arizona)
The University of Arizona Department of Economic Development (Tucson, Arizona)
The University of Arizona Medical Center (Tucson, Arizona)
Trammell Crow Residential
Union Homes (Salt Lake City, Utah)
Unified Government of Wyandotte County and City of Kansas City, Kansas
Wal-Mart, Inc. (Bentonville, Arkansas)
Waste Management
Wells Fargo Bank NA
Widewaters (Syracuse, New York)
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 55 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
29
EXHIBIT B
Resume of Eric S. Lander, Principal
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 56 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
30
ERIC S. LANDER
EDUCATION
In 1981, Mr. Lander received a B.S. in Marketing from the Arizona State University College of
Business Administration, receiving honors status for his superior cumulative grade point average.
In 1992, Mr. Lander received a Master’s in Real Estate Development and Investment from New
York University, graduating with honors.
BUSINESS EXPERIENCE
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc.
President (October 1984 to Present)
Established Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. as a multi-disciplined real estate consulting
firm designed to provide comprehensive research and analysis to the development,
financial, investment, and municipal communities. Responsibilities include direct
marketing, project management, staffing, and client relations. The firm has performed
more than 400 major consulting assignments with over 75 local and national clients. Fields
of expertise include market and feasibility analysis of large-scale master planned
communities, freeway oriented mixed-use projects, retail centers, office complexes,
business parks, and hotels. Additional services include fiscal impact studies, property
valuation, and development plan analysis.
Mountain West Research
Associate (December 1988 to January 1990)
Senior Consultant (October 1983 to October 1984)
Mr. Lander assisted in managing the Commercial Real Estate Services Division of
Mountain West, Arizona's largest real estate and economic development consulting firm.
Responsibilities included direct marketing, personnel management, client relations, and
consulting on large-scale commercial, office, industrial, and hotel projects. Also
contributed to several real estate publications and assisted in the management and
marketing of the firm's commercial, office, and industrial (COI) data base.
Iliff, Thorn & Company
Marketing Assistant (January 1982 to December 1983)
Joined Iliff, Thorn & Company during its infancy and became solely responsible for
providing in-house marketing support services to its commercial real estate brokers. These
services included demographic research, office/industrial/retail market studies, raw land
sales packages, site selection analysis, client relations, and property research. Major
accomplishments included establishing and implementing office and industrial absorption
studies, devised central office market and available raw land files, and organized the
development of an industrial/retail map. Also, during this time, Mr. Lander obtained a real
estate sales license and became involved in commercial brokerage activities.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 57 / 58
Canyon Research Southwest, Inc. 31
ERIC S. LANDER
Page 2
RANGE OF EXPERIENCE
In 1987, Mr. Lander, in cooperation with the Drachman Institute of Regional Land Planning, published a
working paper titled "Land Development as Value Added in the Development Process and Appropriate
Criteria to Rank Sites for Selection of Master Planned Satellite Communities." Since the publication of
this working paper, Mr. Lander has conducted numerous market feasibility studies on existing and
proposed, large-scale, master planned communities in the Southwestern United States, totaling over 80,000
acres. The working paper was evaluated and utilized by such prestigious universities as Harvard, M.I.T.
and the University of North Carolina as part of their master’s program in Real Estate, City and Regional
Planning, and Business.
Mr. Lander is an instructor with the Commercial Real Estate Institute, teaching classes in Market Analysis, Commercial Property Valuation and Land Valuation.
Developed a model designed to evaluate and rank the development potential of freeway interchanges.
The methodology for ranking freeway properties is based on a list of 25 criteria which provide a
framework to efficiently compare the strengths and weaknesses of various freeway sites. Seven (7)
criteria have been established which apply to metropolitan area economic base and real estate market,
five (5) criteria evaluate the region influenced by the presence of the freeway in question, and thirteen
(13) interchange and site-specific criteria are aimed at determining future real estate development
opportunities. This model has been utilized in evaluating freeway-oriented, mixed-use projects
anchored by regional malls, business parks, office complexes, and hotels.
Mr. Lander has provided consulting services on downtown redevelopment and historic preservation
efforts. Recent examples include a heritage tourism study for the Erie Canal terminus in Buffalo, New York; evaluation of potential office, retail, hotel and arena development in the downtown areas
of Glendale and Mesa, Arizona; retail market evaluation and redevelopment plan for downtown Warsaw, Missouri; a downtown master plan for downtown Lee’s Summit, Missouri; and a
redevelopment plan for the 24 Highway Corridor in Independence, Missouri.
Mr. Lander has conducted TIF and TDD Revenue Projections for a variety of large-scale retail
projects in Missouri and Kansas. Tax Increment Financing and Transportation Development Districts
are government-backed funding mechanisms designed to finance project-specific public
infrastructure improvement. Funded is provided via the issue and sale of bonds. In the case of Tax
Increment Financing the bonds are repaid with incremental increases in property tax and sales tax
revenue generated by the designated redevelopment area. Transportation Development Districts
involve the levy of an additional sales tax on businesses operating within the redevelopment area.
Mr. Lander has conducted STAR Bond Feasibility and Market Studies on several proposed
developments in Kansas, including the Kansas City Tourism District, Legends at Village West, Kansas City Research & Medical Campus, and Rosedale Station Shopping Center. The Market
Study evaluates the market positioning, market demand, short-term development potential, and
economic impact for the proposed Redevelopment District. Meanwhile, the Feasibility Study
provides a STAR Bond revenue vs. costs comparison to determine the ability of the
Redevelopment District to cover debt service for the projected STAR Bond obligations throughout
the bond maturity period.
Grand Island Study Session - 11/15/2022 Page 58 / 58